Risk Register

The Project Office › Parcel A (Phase 1) › Project log › Risk Register

Every identified threat and opportunity for Parcel A (Phase 1), recorded with the fields the PRINCE2 7 risk register sets. “Not recorded” marks a field the original entry did not hold; nothing has been estimated to fill it.

Risks registered 21 October 2026

20 risks · R-026 to R-045 · sorted by score · 3 at 15 or more (escalated to the Executive)
Risk identifierRisk authorDate registeredRisk categoryRisk description (cause, event, effect)Probability, impact and expected valueProximityRisk response categoryRisk responseRisk statusRisk ownerRisk actionee
R-036Project Manager21 Oct 2026LegalCause: Strong wording in public text, press pitches or quoted concerns that name or identify an official. Event: A statement is read as an accusation of fact against an identifiable person. Effect: Defamation claim or correction demand; credibility lost with press and courts.
Linked: I-036, I-046
Probability 3, impact 5 score 15Now (press tip-off pending)ReduceBuild checks for banned words and personal data; officials by public role only; concerns recorded as “his concern” with full wording in the private record; independent legal review before any court step.OpenProject ManagerAll workers
R-037Project Manager21 Oct 2026EvidenceCause: Record holders weed or lose files; our own copies sit in one place. Event: Evidence is lost or destroyed before it is copied. Effect: A ground to reopen cannot be proved.
Linked: I-040
Probability 3, impact 5 score 15OngoingReducePreservation requests to each holder; three copies of everything we hold (Wayback, git, offline); missing source files (e.g. one 2016 catalogue entry) restored.OpenProject ManagerDisclosure workers
R-038Project Manager21 Oct 2026OperationsCause: Four workers share one Gmail account and connected-app limits (HubSpot 429s). Event: Calls slow to about 45 s or fail. Effect: Deadlines and syncs slip; work packages overrun.
Linked: I-061
Probability 5, impact 3 score 15NowReduceOne Gmail-heavy worker at a time; reuse the Gmail inventory; pace 3–5 s per call.OpenProject ManagerProject Support
R-026Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory deadlineCause: HM Land Registry subject access request (1-month clock). Event: No reply, or a partial reply, by 28 Oct. Effect: Title-chain work (WP-05.A) and the ICR complaint are delayed.
Linked: I-043
Probability 3, impact 4 score 1228 Oct 2026 (7 days)ReduceHubSpot task; chase on 29 Oct if nothing; ICO complaint if the clock lapses.OpenProject ManagerDrafts engine
R-028Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory deadlineCause: South Wales Police subject access request. Event: No reply by 29 Oct. Effect: Personal data held about the family stays undisclosed.
Linked: I-043
Probability 3, impact 4 score 1229 Oct 2026 (8 days)ReduceChaser on 30 Oct; ICO complaint if no reply.OpenProject ManagerDrafts engine
R-030Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory deadlineCause: Vale of Glamorgan Council and Cadw clocks. Event: No answer by 4 Nov (Vale FOI 00211483 already overdue since 16 Oct). Effect: Council and heritage records stay closed.Probability 4, impact 3 score 124 Nov 2026 (14 days)ReduceICO referral for the Vale if nothing by 4 Nov; Cadw review decision.OpenProject ManagerDrafts engine
R-039Project Manager21 Oct 2026OpportunityCause: Press tip-off prepared but not released. Event: The news window closes before the meeting (22 Oct 19:00). Effect: Coverage of Item 10 is lost.
Linked: I-050, D-01
Probability 4, impact 3 score 12HoursAccept until the Executive decides (D-01)Decision D-01 at the top of the highlight report.OpenExecutivePress worker
R-040Project Manager21 Oct 2026OrganisationCause: One-person Project Board; one Gmail account; one AI Project Manager; one working machine with about 5 GB free. Event: Any one of them is unavailable or full. Effect: Work stops or decisions queue (18 open now).Probability 3, impact 4 score 12OngoingReduceDecisions listed one line each with a recommended option; daily highlight report; disk housekeeping; registers kept as files and in HubSpot.OpenExecutiveProject Manager
R-041Project Manager21 Oct 2026QualityCause: Figures and lines written into outward text before they are checked. Event: An unchecked figure reaches the press or a public body. Effect: Credibility lost; corrections needed.
Linked: PL-22
Probability 3, impact 4 score 12NowReduceEvery figure checked against its source before a draft is shown (see PL-22).OpenProject ManagerAll workers
R-042Project Manager21 Oct 2026StakeholderCause: The meeting is remote-only and the Executive will not attend online. Event: Item 10 is heard without him and the minutes do not say why. Effect: His request is closed without a hearing.
Linked: I-034, I-045
Probability 4, impact 3 score 1222 Oct 2026 19:00ReduceDecision D-02; ask the press to watch; request an in-person meeting afterwards (I-045).OpenExecutiveProject Manager
R-033Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory deadlineCause: HM Land Registry complaint to the Independent Complaints Reviewer (ICR/090/26). Event: The full complaint is not filed by 13 Nov (hard limit about 25 Nov). Effect: The review route is lost.Probability 2, impact 5 score 1013 Nov 2026 (23 days)ReduceReminder set for 6 Nov; draft built from the SAR reply.OpenExecutiveProject Manager
R-045Project Manager21 Oct 2026LegalCause: Records keep arriving that could show dishonesty, concealment or government involvement. Event: A trigger is found with no SOP ready. Effect: Evidence is not preserved properly, or a time limit counted from discovery is lost.
Linked: I-076, D-19, WP-REOPEN
Probability 2, impact 5 score 10Any day (records due 28 Oct and Nov)ReduceTrigger-event SOP v1 (/sop-trigger-event/) and side project SP-REOPEN (/side-project-reopen/) published, with steps, owners and clocks; approval sought at D-19.OpenExecutiveProject Manager
R-027Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory deadlineCause: South Wales Police internal review clock. Event: No outcome by 26 Oct. Effect: Escalation route to the ICO opens late.Probability 3, impact 3 score 926 Oct 2026 (5 days)ReduceChaser the day after the clock lapses (drafts engine); ICO referral prepared.OpenProject ManagerDrafts engine
R-029Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory deadlineCause: Northern Ireland Office request clock. Event: No reply by 26 Oct. Effect: The government-involvement line stays untested.Probability 3, impact 3 score 926 Oct 2026 (5 days)ReduceChaser the day after; internal review request drafted.OpenProject ManagerDrafts engine
R-031Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory deadlineCause: National Library of Wales request. Event: No reply by about 6 Nov. Effect: The footage dates (I-038) stay unconfirmed.
Linked: I-038
Probability 3, impact 3 score 96 Nov 2026 (16 days)ReduceChaser the day after; add the dated publication record to Watchtower.OpenProject ManagerDrafts engine
R-032Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory deadlineCause: Ministry of Defence (and South Wales Police FOI) clocks. Event: No reply by 9 Nov. Effect: The 1988 dispossession records stay unseen.Probability 3, impact 3 score 99 Nov 2026 (19 days)ReduceChasers the day after; ICO window for the MoD runs to 21 Nov.OpenProject ManagerDrafts engine
R-034Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory deadlineCause: Many clocks fall on 17 and 18 Nov (HMRC, GLD, HMLR EIR; CPS, RCAHMW, Vale, Glamorgan Archives, SWP 1040/26 review, DCMS, ICO). Event: A chase or referral slips in the batch. Effect: One or more routes lapse unnoticed.Probability 3, impact 3 score 917–18 Nov 2026 (27 days)ReduceEvery clock has a HubSpot task; the drafts engine releases chasers the day after each lapses.OpenProject ManagerDrafts engine
R-035Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory deadlineCause: ICO complaint windows (NPCC 20 Nov, MoD 21 Nov). Event: The window closes before a complaint is filed. Effect: The ICO route for those bodies is lost.Probability 2, impact 4 score 820–21 Nov 2026ReduceDraft ICO complaints by 13 Nov for the Executive to approve.OpenProject ManagerDrafts engine
R-044Project Manager21 Oct 2026Statutory routeCause: Cadw refused ATISN 27589 as a repeated request (FOI s.14(2)). Event: The 1988 papers are asked for again. Effect: A further refusal and a weaker position with the ICO.Probability 2, impact 4 score 8OngoingAvoidDo not ask Cadw for the 1988 papers again. Use the review or ICO route on the existing refusal, or ask other holders (RCAHMW, the Vale, Glamorgan Archives).OpenProject ManagerDrafts engine
R-043Project Manager21 Oct 2026PrivacyCause: Old personal correspondence becomes public through archive backfills. Event: Private matters are published. Effect: Distress and privacy exposure.
Linked: D-04
Probability 2, impact 3 score 6This weekReduceDescribe rather than reproduce; Executive decides on the 2016 email (D-04).OpenProject ManagerWatchtower worker

Active risks

35 risks
Risk identifierRisk authorDate registeredRisk categoryRisk description (cause, event, effect)Probability, impact and expected valueProximityRisk response categoryRisk responseRisk statusRisk ownerRisk actionee
PR-01Not recorded20 Oct 2026Not recordedA statutory window is missed (internal review, ICO, EIR reg 11) because a clock is not trackedProbability 2, impact 5 (score 10, 1–5 scales)Not recordedNot recordedEvery open request has a CRM task with its due date; reply clocks re-read weekly.OpenProject ManagerNot recorded
PR-02Not recorded20 Oct 2026Not recordedA request is re-asked while pending, harming credibility or triggering a repeat-request refusalProbability 2, impact 4 (score 8, 1–5 scales)Not recordedNot recordedSearch sent mail, drafts and the question ledger before every draft (publish gate pass 2).OpenProject ManagerNot recorded
PR-03Not recorded20 Oct 2026Not recordedPublic text reads as an accusation or a findingProbability 2, impact 5 (score 10, 1–5 scales)Not recordedNot recordedcited record only; no named-person accusations.OpenProject ManagerNot recorded
PR-04Not recorded20 Oct 2026Not recordedPersonal data is publishedProbability 2, impact 5 (score 10, 1–5 scales)Not recordedNot recordedPrivacy checks on final text; helpers named by first name only; withheld catalogues kept out.OpenProject ManagerNot recorded
PR-05Not recorded20 Oct 2026Not recordedAn email commits the programme to payProbability 2, impact 3 (score 6, 1–5 scales)Not recordedNot recordedDrafts only; payment-wording check; Executive sends.OpenExecutiveNot recorded
PR-06Not recorded20 Oct 2026Not recordedSeveral workers edit the same branch, page or record at onceProbability 3, impact 3 (score 9, 1–5 scales)Not recordedNot recordedFetch and rebase before push, never force; lock files for shared data; one Change Log row per batch.OpenProject ManagerNot recorded
PR-07Not recorded20 Oct 2026Not recordedPlatform rate limits stall workProbability 4, impact 2 (score 8, 1–5 scales)Not recordedNot recordedPacing and back-off; fewer parallel workers per platform.OpenProject ManagerNot recorded
PR-08Not recorded20 Oct 2026Not recordedThe coordinating thread goes quiet againProbability 2, impact 4 (score 8, 1–5 scales)Not recordedNot recordedLong work in workers; two-hour status rule; daily log.OpenProject ManagerNot recorded
PR-09Not recorded20 Oct 2026Not recordedWorker machine disk fills (about 3 GB free on 20 Oct)Probability 3, impact 3 (score 9, 1–5 scales)Not recordedNot recordedShallow clones, small renders, temp files deleted.OpenProject ManagerNot recorded
PR-10Not recorded20 Oct 2026Not recordedE-book sales stay at zero, so nothing funds paid routesProbability 4, impact 2 (score 8, 1–5 scales)Not recordedNot recordedPromotion flywheel; catalogue; no spending in the meantime.OpenProject ManagerNot recorded
R-001Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: historic and administrative records dispersed or destroyed. Event: a record is lost before it is requested. Effect: permanent loss of recoverable evidence.Probability Medium, impact HighNowReduceReduce: preservation requests; Companies House capture; archive searches; digital backup; vulnerable sources first.OPENPMNot recorded
R-002Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: ICR route is time-limited — window control 18 Nov; outer date about 25 Nov ; target 13 Nov. Event: full complaint (ICR/090/26) not filed in time. Effect: loss of the HMLR review route.Probability Medium, impact High13–25 NovReduceReduce: file by 13 Nov; confirm the start-date basis with the ICR in writing (I-010).OPENExecutiveNot recorded
R-003Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: woodland private-sale offer, £30,000 option plus purchaser costs ( 1000 , P2-T-03); possible open-market sale early 2027. Event: disposal before title work ends. Effect: change of possession/availability.Probability TBC, impact HighNowReduceReduce: controlled decision; legal advice before any irreversible step. Decision record due 16 Oct: outcome to be confirmed by the Executive .OPENExecutiveNot recorded
R-004Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: reviews, complaints and disclosures depend on other bodies. Event: late or partial replies. Effect: schedule slip; incomplete evidence picture.Probability High, impact MediumCurrentReduceReduce: chase dates and statutory dates per 1543 .OPENPMNot recorded
R-005Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: interpretation outruns the document, including other AIs’ outputs (18 Oct: Gemini PDF errors; Project Manager’s own 1939 wording, I-008). Event: inference published as fact. Effect: credibility of the record reduced.Probability Medium, impact HighCurrentReduceReduce: EV citation rule; fact-check every line against an opened source; Read the Docs instead of explanation.OPENProject Assurance ( to be confirmed by the Executive )Not recorded
R-006Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: extent of the 1938 WGR acquisition and the 1969 deed not yet checked; 1969 deed not on the HMLR schedule disclosed 30 Jul 2026. Event: WA240304 registered extent differs from the title the upstream conveyances support. Effect: first-registration question unresolved.Probability TBC, impact HighBefore title/remedy gateReduceReduce: AC-006 plan-by-plan chain 1877→WA240304; obtain 1938 and 1969 deeds and plans. A missing file item is not proof of concealment.OPEN — immediatePM / Project AssuranceNot recorded
R-007Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026 (updated 19 Oct 2026)Not recordedHMLR copies (Form 1C etc.) not held before the ICR complaint is drafted → remedy route assessed without its key documentProbability Medium, impact HighBefore 13 NovNot recordedSAR first (due 28 Oct); OC2 (£11 each) only for what HMLR refuses, with the Executive’s approval (CH-012, CH-013); Exception Report if not held by 6 NovOPENExecutiveNot recorded
R-008Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026 (updated 19 Oct 2026)Not recordedLimitation: time since 1955, 1983 and 1987 → no evidence meets the Takhar test or s.32 concealment → any action time-barredProbability High, impact HighAt G0Not recordedTarget evidence at the two tests (rubric); record the discovery date of each find; act promptly on finds; legal triage before any court stepOPENExecutiveNot recorded
R-009Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: several agents edit the wiki at once (18 Oct 16:47–17:08 footer sweep). Event: one agent overwrites another. Effect: lost edits; contradictory rules.Probability High, impact MediumCurrentReduceReduce: 10-minute collision guard; one site-wide sweep at a time; decide I-006.OPENPMNot recorded
R-010Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: WordPress shows the editing connection as a 30-day free-site grace period (Project Manager to Executive, 18 Oct 16:53). Event: connection lapses. Effect: agents cannot maintain the wiki.Probability Medium, impact MediumAbout mid-Nov (ESTIMATE: 30 days from 18 Oct)ReduceReduce: decide plan upgrade (CH-011).OPENExecutiveNot recorded
R-011Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: Executive is outside the UK (Glamorgan Archives priced ex-VAT for an enquirer in Patagonia, 2922 ). Event: searchroom-only records cannot be seen. Effect: delay to DB/E/1, VG41 and similar items.Probability Medium, impact MediumCurrentReduceReduce: paid copying (DB/E/1–2: £17) or a UK proxy ( to be confirmed by the Executive ).OPENExecutiveNot recorded
R-012Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: two earlier plans of the farm exist (DMAT/279; DXJF/61/12). Event: the Executive’s map is not DB/E/1 plan 19 . Effect: wrong date, tenants or field names attributed.Probability Medium, impact MediumBefore estate pages publishReduceReduce: Executive to say where the map was photographed; obtain the DB/E/1 reference table.OPENProject ManagerNot recorded
R-013Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: damages inputs outstanding (I-015 to I-019). Event: damages quantification incomplete. Effect: figures on the damages page stay indicative or unquantified.Probability High, impact MediumBefore Business Case update (T24, 7 Dec)ReduceReduce: supply inputs (DMG-IN).OPENExecutiveNot recorded
R-014Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: HubSpot execution records are not yet reconciled to the current programme hierarchy; 72 open tasks have no priority and only 27 tasks are directly linked to tickets. Event: evidence work is duplicated or misrouted and deadlines are obscured. Effect: a preservation-critical artifact or statutory step is missed and the audit trail becomes unreliable.Probability High, impact HighNowReduceReduce: daily task/ticket/WP/project reconciliation; assign priority and next action; run a deterministic reply → preserve → catalogue → link → deadline → review cycle. No automatic merge or deletion.OPENPM / Project SupportNot recorded
R-015Not recorded19 Oct 2026 (updated 19 Oct 2026)Not recordedHeld Gmail drafts lost before preservationProbability Low, impact MediumNot recordedNot recorded58 drafts backed up to JSON 19 Oct 19:18 UTC before edits; supersede by subject prefix, never deleteREDUCEDProject ManagerNot recorded
R-016Not recordedBefore 19 Oct 2026Not recordedCause: other farms share the names (Llandough Farm of the Rees family, the Great House at Llandough-juxta-Cowbridge, Ynysawdre near Bridgend) and the 1881 census uses the one-off label “Llandough Home Farm”. Event: evidence about another farm is catalogued as ours, or ours is missed under another name. Effect: wrong-farm evidence weakens the record.Probability Medium, impact HighCurrentReduceReduce: identify by household and parcel, not name alone; disambiguation pages EV-0224 , EV-0228 ; out-of-scope items go to the Kissed Frogs register .OPENPMNot recorded
R-017Not recorded19 Oct 2026Not recordedOverlapping requests to one body → refusal as repeated (s.14(2)) or vexatious (s.14(1)), e.g. Cadw ATISN 27589, 19 Oct → route closed; ICO onlyProbability High, impact MediumNot recordedNot recordedDuplicate check before every send; state what is new; one email per body; use review/ICO instead of re-asking; wait for pending replies (26-0009, due 6 Nov)OPENProject Manager; ExecutiveNot recorded
R-018Not recorded19 Oct 2026Not recordedRecords destroyed under past retention schedules (WG ATISN 26-0010: “would have been destroyed”) → evidence unobtainableProbability High, impact HighNot recordedNot recordedAsk for the schedule, date and authority (internal review by 14 Dec); disposal records (26-0009); other custodians (TNA OSP 7, Places of Deposit, Glamorgan Archives); close as “Destroyed” with basisOPENExecutiveNot recorded
R-019Not recorded19 Oct 2026Not recordedEmails to named bodies and people → wording read as an accusation of fact, a threat or an admission → defamation or harassment complaint; credibility lossProbability Medium, impact HighNot recordedNot recordedPre-send liability check of every draft; facts with sources only; no threats; no admissions; letters before action only after legal adviceOPENProject Manager; ExecutiveNot recorded
R-020Not recorded19 Oct 2026Not recordedPersonal data on public sites (third parties, SAR replies, addresses) → privacy breach → ICO complaint; takedown; harmProbability Medium, impact HighNot recordedNot recordedNo contact details on public pages; SAR replies kept private; redact addresses in public PDFs; officials named only as printed in their lettersOPENProject ManagerNot recorded
R-021Not recorded19 Oct 2026Not recordedConnector rate limits and failures (Google 429s, HubSpot 502s, Gmail attachment download, WordPress token) → write half-done or repeated → duplicate send, missed slot, false “done”Probability High, impact MediumNot recordedNot recordedBack off 30–60 s; read back every write; check Sent before any retry; alternative routes; log in the Daily Log; R-010 for the WordPress connectionOPENProject ManagerNot recorded
R-022Not recorded19 Oct 2026Not recordedEvidence describes the family’s occupation as a tenancy (1904 press: tenancy from 1855, EV-0227 ; 1916 yearly tenancy; 1939 grazing let EV-0023 ) → court treats occupation as permissive → case weakenedProbability High, impact HighNot recordedNot recordedPublish cuts-against on every EV page; test with primary records (1877 counterpart, 1905 conveyance, 1941 farm survey); never overstate; Business Case reviewed at G0OPENExecutiveNot recorded
R-023Not recorded19 Oct 2026Not recordedSpending before free routes are answered, or beyond tolerance → wasted money; tolerance breachProbability Low, impact MediumNot recordedNot recordedFree admin first (CH-012); OC2 only for refusals; every spend approved by Executive; spend £0 to dateOPEN — controlledExecutiveNot recorded
R-024Not recorded19 Oct 2026Not recordedDraft addressed to a dead or wrong door, or already sent → no reply; duplicate; embarrassmentProbability Medium, impact MediumNot recordedNot recordedTo = address the body last replied from, checked on its own site; check Sent before scheduling (3 Vale drafts found already sent)OPENProject ManagerNot recorded
R-025Not recorded19 Oct 2026Not recordedSix surfaces (wiki, four sites, Gmail, HubSpot) drift apart → contradictions in the public recordProbability Medium, impact MediumNot recordedNot recordedWiki is master; debrief flywheel syncs; Cloudflare deploy confirmed per commit; one Change LogOPENProject ManagerNot recorded

Closed risks

0 risks

No entries.

Scales used

How probability and impact are scored

Earlier entries (R-) use Low / Medium / High for probability and impact. Programme entries (PR-) use 1–5 scales, score = probability × impact; escalation to the Executive at 15 or more, or when a response needs spending or an outward step (risk management approach, PID).

PRINCE2 7 outlines: sources · product set · archive